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  • Voltaire Staff

Moore's Law alive, only slowed to 3-year cadence: Intel CEO

Moore's Law is slowing down, with changes happening every three years instead of two, Intel's CEO said recently at the Manufacturing@MIT worksop. However, he said, it's not completely gone.

The top Intel executive said the Moore's Law is alive and well, and that the foremost chip-maker will achieve the target of 1 trillion transistors by the end of the decade.

"We're no longer in the golden era of Moore's Law. It's much, much harder now. We're probably doubling effectively closer to every three years now. We've definitely seen a slowing. We've seen a shift in the economics associated with Moore's Law.

"A modern FAB, seven, eight years ago would have cost about $10 billion. Now it costs about $20 billion. You've seen a definite shift in the economics. But here we are today, and the most advanced chip that we build today is about 100 billion on a single package. Well, that's a lot of transisters," said Pat Gelsinger in the panel discussion held earlier this month.

Contrary to the Gelsinger's view, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had in September declared Moore's Law "dead," for, according to him, the cost of silicon wafer was becoming more expensive and not cheaper. The Intel CEO, however, remains optimistic.

"... for all of the critics that declare we're dead, and we think of Intel as the steward of Moore's Law, until the periodic table is exhausted, we ain't finished," he said.

Gordon Moore, a co-founder of Intel, published Moore's Law in his research paper, 'Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits' in May 1965.

The Moore's Law says that the number of transistors on a microchip would double approximately every two years, leading to a rapid increase in computational power and a decrease in the cost of computing.

In essence, the capabilities of our computers and electronic devices would grow exponentially over time.

For many years, the prediction held true, driving innovations and advancements across various technological domains. However, in recent times, the practical implementation of Moore's Law has faced challenges, primarily due to the physical limitations of current semiconductor technology.

Moore's law paves the way for the development of AI for the more information an AI system has, the better it can learn and make smart predictions. As processing power continues to double at an accelerating pace, some argue that it can result into a 'singularity' as well.

What is the Singularity?

As published in the Stanford Research, The singularity is a future point where technology, especially in intelligence, becomes so advanced that it's hard to predict what is human and what is machine. It's like a moment when super-smart machines could keep improving themselves really fast, and humans might find it tricky to figure out what comes next.

As we approach the Singularity, a point where technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, notable futurists like Ray Kurzweil predict a merging of human intelligence with artificial intelligence.

Kurzweil believes that by the 2040s, our brains will connect directly to the cloud, enhancing our cognitive abilities. He foresees the acceleration of technological progress, ultimately leading to a profound transformation in human existence.

Kurzweil covered more aspects of Singularity in his book, 'The Singularity is Near.'

Another conjecture, the technological singularity, published by Vinge Verner, refers to a hypothetical point in the future when technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible.

Verner first introduced this concept in a 1993 essay titled 'The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era.'

Verner argued that, at the point of singularity, the pace of technological progress would accelerate so rapidly that the future beyond that point becomes difficult for humans to envision.

The idea conjectures that once superintelligent machines or systems emerge, they could improve their own design and capabilities at an ever-increasing rate, surpassing human intelligence and radically transforming civilization.

Vinge did not specify a precise timeline for when the singularity might occur but suggested that it could happen within a few decades.


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